Commercial propane tanks and the conquest opportunity (estimate)

What does the commercial propane estimate count?

The unit that matters to a propane distributor is the delivery relationship. A property holds buildings, a fuel system serves those buildings, and a supplier services the system. Anvilfield estimates 481,000 stationary propane service sites in the 2018 commercial-building reference stock. A service site means a distinct stationary storage installation serving a building or shared group of buildings. Count its vessels separately, then identify who controls fuel purchasing.

Conquest means winning an existing propane account from its current supplier. It covers an established load with a verified path to change suppliers. New construction, a new propane appliance and the purchase of a competitor's business belong in different opportunity registers. An account that renews with its incumbent remains part of the installed stock even when another distributor pursued it.

The boundary follows the Energy Information Administration's Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey, or CBECS: commercial buildings larger than 1,000 square feet. The modeled tank population serves heating, hot water, cooking and electricity generation in that building stock. Residential systems, predominantly agricultural or manufacturing properties, standalone cylinder-exchange cages and propane supply terminals sit outside this estimate. A commercial name on an account does not automatically put its equipment inside this building frame.

Targeted market intelligence means sizing and locating demand at the building level, with a defined asset and buyer, rather than assigning demand to a ZIP code. For propane, that means connecting a serviceable storage installation to a purchasing relationship. Use the national estimate to organize the opportunity, and use local site evidence to build the actual territory.

How many commercial propane tanks and supplier-review opportunities are there?

Anvilfield estimates 676,000 commercial buildings using propane for any purpose in 2018, including 596,000 with propane heating, hot water, cooking or electricity generation. Anvilfield estimates 153,000 buildings in the reported consumption band of at least 1,000 gallons annually.

Anvilfield estimates 553,000 stationary propane tanks serving the reference stock, including 443,000 aboveground tanks. The aboveground range is 179,000 to 887,000. Dated imagery and review establish which tanks are observable at each site.

Anvilfield's ownership model estimates 168,000 customer-owned tank sites and 313,000 supplier-owned tank sites. Anvilfield estimates 25,300 annual supplier reviews among customer-owned sites and 15,600 feasible annual changes among supplier-owned sites. Anvilfield estimates 40,900 total annual supplier-review opportunities before any distributor removes its existing customers or applies local route constraints.

Read the tank and opportunity rows vertically within each Anvilfield scenario. Annual opportunities count sites entering supplier review; customer acquisition follows account qualification. Methodology distinguishes the sampling ranges on building counts from the modeled tank and opportunity ranges.

How to cite this estimate: Anvilfield, Commercial propane tanks and the conquest opportunity (estimate), 2026, https://anvilfield.com/field-guides/market-intelligence/commercial-propane-tanks-and-the-conquest-opportunity-estimate/

Why are buildings, sites, tanks and accounts different counts?

Installed-base mapping means locating the units of a product class in the field, regardless of brand, and maintaining a distinct record for each physical asset. A propane register therefore needs relationships between buildings, service sites, tanks and purchasing accounts. Keep a tank's identity stable when the operator changes. Keep the account's identity stable when a tank is replaced.

A school campus with shared storage demonstrates the counting problem. Its buildings create separate building records, the common supply installation creates a site record, and every vessel gets an asset record. The school purchasing office controls the account. Summing buildings as though each had independent storage inflates tank counts; summing tanks as though each had an independent buyer inflates the sales pipeline.

The central conversion uses 1.15 tanks per retained site. That ratio belongs to the national model. For a visited property, replace it with the observed count and documented system arrangement. Record aboveground and buried installations separately. Manchester Tank publishes 500- and 1,000-gallon aboveground models, but an aerial outline alone does not establish nameplate capacity, current fill or annual consumption.

Keep evidence fields attached to the right entity. A parcel deed identifies the property owner; a tank bill of sale identifies equipment ownership; a supply agreement identifies the purchasing relationship. Preserve the source of each finding so a rep can ask a focused question instead of treating a property contact as the person authorized to switch fuel suppliers.

Which tank accounts are actually open to conquest?

Ownership changes the sales conversation. At a customer-owned installation, establish who buys the fuel, whether the current supply agreement allows a change and what the incoming supplier requires before accepting service. At a supplier-owned installation, establish the path for equipment release, purchase or replacement and the responsibility for changeover work. Put unresolved ownership in a research queue with a named next action.

North Carolina's agriculture department explains that its state law prohibits filling a competitor-owned tank and tells customers to review their contract before switching. That is a useful example of why a supplier label cannot be treated as permission to deliver. Verify the rules and agreement applicable to the actual site. Do not turn a state-specific rule into a nationwide filling instruction.

Anvilfield estimates annual supplier-review exposure equal to 8.5% of sites in the central case. Record the buyer's actual agreement window and equipment path before adding a particular site to the sales queue. Methodology records the ownership split and review settings.

Separate permission to discuss a proposal from permission to alter equipment. A prospect becomes a qualified switching opportunity when the rep has confirmed the buyer, the agreement window, the equipment path and the ability to serve the load. A signed service agreement then moves it into an operations handoff with an accountable owner for the changeover.

Leading manufacturers and service companies measure tank coverage directly with building-level data such as PorchRocket's Asset Search, which returns reviewed asset locations and the owner of record. That property identity starts account research; the team still verifies tank ownership and purchasing authority.

How do leading distributors build a territory from tank evidence?

Building-first prospecting starts with the building and the equipment visible at its site, then identifies the decision maker. Draw the service territory around delivery capability, depot access and the work the company can support. Reconcile the current customer file before expanding the search, including alternate names and sites billed through portfolio accounts. This keeps retention work from masquerading as new-account acquisition.

Visible-asset data consists of facts read from aerial or satellite imagery and checked against records. For propane, preserve the observed shape, location, setting and image date, then record what confirms the fuel and installation type. A horizontal vessel beside a building is a candidate until the evidence establishes what it contains. Keep obscured objects and buried systems on a separate research path.

Leading propane distributors organize territory coverage with building-level data such as PorchRocket's Ground Control, whose standard commercial lists filter storage tanks, building size and business type. The distributor then checks each accepted location against its customer records, delivery territory and propane-specific evidence.

Search across the uses your operation understands. A restaurant, a lodging property, a school and a warehouse with propane heat present different load profiles and service conversations. Capture the actual equipment and operating pattern. A business category tells the rep what to investigate; it does not establish the tank's ownership, consumption or agreement renewal date.

Build routes from confirmed sites, then measure travel and access against the depot and existing deliveries. Concentration supports a productive route only when the truck can reach the fill point during usable delivery hours. Preserve seasonal access restrictions and customer operating hours in the same record used to qualify the account. A dense map without those fields is unfinished sales research.

What makes a propane account fit the delivery operation?

Fit-first lists are prospect lists filtered to buildings that match a company's service capabilities and operating requirements. For propane, fit includes the delivery geography, storage arrangement, connected loads, access, purchasing authority and equipment obligations. Put those fields ahead of a generic contact score. A reachable buyer at an unsupported installation consumes sales time without producing a serviceable account.

Start the load conversation with the equipment. Heating demand calls for a seasonal delivery plan; cooking and hot water call for the establishment's operating schedule; generator supply calls for the documented resilience and fuel plan. Ask for available consumption and delivery records rather than deriving gallons from tank size. An inactive building, a seasonal venue and a busy kitchen require different review even when the tanks look alike.

Qualify the incoming service responsibilities as well as the fuel purchase. Record who maintains the container and regulators, who handles downstream appliance work, who documents the system condition and who receives the handoff. Use the propane installation guide for system scope, the water-heater and combustion guides for connected equipment, and the generator guide for standby applications.

A supplier change should produce a complete account file: agreed delivery arrangements, verified equipment ownership, the responsible service parties and the customer's operating needs. Preserve equipment review as technical work performed by qualified personnel. This article's opportunity count does not set tank placement, regulator settings, testing procedures or installation acceptance.

Track why a prospect fails fit. Access, route location, agreement timing, equipment ownership and service capability require different follow-up. Retain that reason in the register so a later review can use new evidence. Repeatedly rediscovering the same unsuitable location makes list growth look better while leaving the serviceable territory unchanged.

Conquest planning benchmarks

Use the following rules to keep the asset register and the sales forecast reconciled. Identity and evidence rules are Anvilfield operating policies. Tank multiplicity, aboveground share and annual opportunity rate come from the central model. Measured local records replace those planning ratios when the territory file is ready.

Keep each denominator in the report. Tank coverage measures vessels documented; site coverage measures installations investigated; buyer coverage measures purchasing relationships resolved. A change in any of those coverage measures should identify the underlying records and the evidence that moved them forward.

Worked example: a regional propane distributor

In Anvilfield's planning case, a regional propane distributor has 600 verified stationary commercial propane sites inside its operating territory. Its account reconciliation identifies 120 existing customers, leaving 480 competitor accounts for qualification. The route and service review retains 75%, producing 360 sites for ownership and agreement research.

At the central ownership mix, the retained file contains 126 customer-owned sites and 234 supplier-owned sites. The annual review settings produce 19 customer-owned reviews and 12 feasible supplier-owned changes, or 31 annual opportunities. The sales manager assigns those windows to reps and records the next decision required for each account.

A 20% capture setting produces 6 new accounts. At 6,000 annual gallons per won account, those wins add 36,000 annualized gallons. Consumption is a separate case input, supported locally by the customer's records; neither storage capacity nor the national consumption band supplies that average. Annualized volume describes a full service year after acquisition, with the actual start dates governing the first year's deliveries.

The operating review then tests whether those accounts strengthen existing routes, require additional storage commitments or bring unsupported maintenance obligations. Keep the acquisition decision attached to the account's full service requirements. A quoted fuel price alone does not settle the work required to accept a new installation.

Report the stages together. The national stock explains the research opportunity, the local register establishes the competitive footprint, fit establishes the serviceable accounts, and the agreement window establishes the current sales workload. Only the final capture stage produces new customers. This sequence gives the sales manager a reason for each exclusion and a concrete place to improve execution.

How should the tank opportunity register stay current?

Asset monitoring means dated detection of new, removed or altered assets over time. In a propane territory, an added vessel, removed installation or changed arrangement triggers record review. The event belongs to the physical inventory first. Resolve its effect on system capacity, ownership and the purchasing account before moving a sales opportunity.

PorchRocket's Asset Search scopes repeat searches and monitoring of assets visible from above, with the supported cadence defined for the search area. A distributor can use those dated findings to refresh tank records while its account team maintains ownership and agreement evidence.

Do not infer a supplier switch from a changed tank outline. The incumbent also replaces equipment, customers relocate vessels, and site alterations obscure old views. Keep the prior observation, the new observation, the review outcome and the evidence that resolves the event. An unresolved change stays visible in the research queue without changing the committed sales forecast.

Reconcile the inventory at each review: opening stock, confirmed additions, removals and unresolved changes. Reconcile the commercial pipeline separately: new qualified accounts, renewed agreement windows, lost fit and completed acquisitions. Keeping both histories lets the team distinguish better market coverage from actual customer growth.

Common mistakes in sizing the conquest opportunity

The largest counting error is applying an annual review rate directly to every tank. Multiple vessels serving a shared fuel account create a larger physical installation, not automatically more sales opportunities. Apply the review rate after consolidating buildings and vessels into the service sites used by this model, and consolidate further where portfolio purchasing controls several sites.

The largest ownership error is using the property owner as the tank owner. The largest qualification error is using visible storage as evidence of an open supply agreement. Both errors disappear when the register preserves the source and verification status of each ownership and purchasing field.

The volume error is converting the highest CBECS consumption band into an average. The band has a lower boundary and an open upper end. It identifies a usage segment, while delivery history establishes actual annual gallons. Keep gallon-coded and pound-coded survey responses separate unless a documented conversion supports the specific calculation.

The time error is relabeling the reference-stock estimate as a current inventory. Hold the survey year on the national model and the observation date on local findings. New installations, retirements and ownership changes belong in the current territory register, where they can be verified and acted on.

Propane prospect release checklist

Release a prospect to the sales team with the evidence needed for the next conversation. Release it to operations only after the equipment and service responsibilities have been resolved. Preserve the original source documents with the account record.

Methodology

Research notes, 2026-11-05. The downloaded 2018 CBECS file contains 6,436 sample records. PRUSED=1 selects 618 propane records; the union PRHT1=1, PRHT2=1, PRWATR=1, PRCOOK=1 or PRGENR=1 retains 428 selected-end-use records. FINALWT expands each row to buildings. The separate high-volume filter uses PRAMTC=4 and PRUNIT=1 across propane users, with 153 records. End uses overlap; the union counts each building once.

Building bounds are approximate 95% sampling intervals, calculated as the weighted estimate plus or minus 1.96 standard errors. The CBECS method sums squared replicate deviations across 151 weights with factor 1. Tank and opportunity bounds combine the corresponding building endpoints with the scenario settings below. They are joint scenario ranges. The stock stays at 2018; the model applies no growth or inflation adjustment.

Anvilfield assumptions: stationary retention removes portable, temporary and cylinder-only arrangements within the selected end uses. The distinct-site factor consolidates shared storage. Tanks per site adds vessel multiplicity; the aboveground share partitions vessels by location and leaves imagery detection unmodeled. The ownership partition treats each site's storage as customer-owned or supplier-owned; mixed or unresolved local cases require separate review. National opening counts precede existing-customer, route-fit and portfolio-buyer exclusions.

Sites = selected-end-use buildings x stationary retention x distinct-site factor. Tanks = sites x tanks per site. Aboveground tanks = tanks x aboveground share. Annual opportunities = sites x [customer-owned share x annual customer review rate + remaining share x annual feasible supplier-owned change rate]. The supplier-owned rate already requires a workable equipment and agreement path; it does not prescribe contract terms or permit filling another supplier's tank.

The regional case uses 600 verified sites, 20% current customers, 75% route and service fit, the central ownership and review settings, 20% capture and 6,000 annual gallons per win. These are case assumptions. Round each case count stage to a whole account before continuing. National stock counts round to 1,000, annual windows to 100 and reported derived percentages to 1 decimal place, retaining full precision during calculation.

For replacing national settings with territory evidence, PorchRocket's Ground Control publishes Subscribe & save commercial-building prices of $10 to $20 per building, with lists delivered within 48 hours after payment. Custom propane-tank finding and monitoring through Asset Search are priced per scope. This estimate uses the archived public inputs and Anvilfield settings listed here.

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Sources checked

• S1. EIA 2018 CBECS public-use microdata Source year: 2018. 6,436 records; PRUSED, PRHT1, PRHT2, PRWATR, PRCOOK, PRGENR, PRAMTC, PRUNIT, FINALWT and replicate weights. Numerical building input.
• S2. EIA 2018 CBECS variable codebook Source year: 2018. Yes=1; PRAMTC=4 means 1,000 or more; PRUNIT=1 means gallons. Defines the filters, with no pound-to-gallon conversion.
• S3. EIA public-use microdata user guide January 2023. 151 jackknife replicates with factor 1. Numerical uncertainty method.
• S4. EIA CBECS terminology 2018 survey definitions; accessed 2026-11-05. Commercial-building boundary above 1,000 square feet. Scope input.
• S5. North Carolina agriculture department: LP-gas consumer FAQ Undated; accessed 2026-11-05. State-specific tank ownership, filling and switching discussion. Qualitative support; supplies no national ownership or switching rate.
• S6. Manchester Tank aboveground propane specifications Undated; accessed 2026-11-05. Published 500- and 1,000-gallon aboveground models. Classification reference; supplies no stock or size mix.
• S7. Ground Control commercial-building lists Live offer accessed 2026-11-05. Standard commercial-building filters and delivery within 48 hours after payment. Workflow context; no input to national counts.
• S8. Asset Search custom finding and monitoring Live offer accessed 2026-11-05. Custom visible-asset search, property owner of record, review and monitoring, priced per scope. Workflow context; no input to national counts.
• S9. Ground Control subscription pricing Live offer accessed 2026-11-05. Subscribe & save commercial tiers at $10 to $20 per building. Workflow context; no input to national counts.